
Sam Shellabarger
FSA, MAAA
Consulting Actuary
Seattle, WA, US
Sam Shellabarger is a consulting actuary with the Seattle office of Milliman. He joined the firm in 2016.
Experience
Sam's primary focus areas are Medicare Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) and Medicare Advantage Organizations.
He has worked with a broad range of clients, including health plans, integrated delivery systems, and provider groups. He played a key role in the development of Milliman's ACO Builder suite of products.
Examples of recent analyses include:
Provider organizations
- Support for provider groups in risk sharing programs, including MSSP, ACO REACH, and Primary Care First
- Medicare Advantage risk-sharing contract support
- Forecasting of ACO program changes
- ACO network development
Health plans
- Medicare Advantage bid development and certification
- Healthcare cost savings opportunity analysis
- Medicare Advantage feasibility analysis
Professional Designations
- Fellow, Society of Actuaries
- Member, American Academy of Actuaries
Education
- BS, Mathematics - Actuarial Science, Washington State University
Publications
Read their latest work
Article
Annual renewal considerations in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP)
07 April 2025 - by Sam Shellabarger, Chris Smith
ACOs should make data-informed decisions each year about their participation in the Medicare Shared Savings Program.
Article
Predictability vs. accuracy in MSSP benchmarks
03 February 2025 - by Sam Shellabarger, Brandin Kuklinski, Noah Champagne
We share some thoughts on how the Accountable Care Prospective Trend has introduced new risks and opportunities for ACOs in the Medicare Shared Savings Program.
Video
The Big Rural Apple: Medicare reimbursement changes under the inpatient prospective payment system
13 November 2024 - by Taylor Call, Drew Osborne, Brian Regan, Sam Shellabarger
Join us for a discussion of the wage index calculations, including a case study of how one hospital in New York City was able to reclassify as “rural” and increase 2025 reimbursement in upstate New York by about 10%, after 2025 bids were submitted.
Article
ACO Primary Care Flex Model: Five key takeaways for ACOs considering participation
18 July 2024 - by Sam Shellabarger, Emma Kramer
We offer tips for ACOs considering participation in the ACO Primary Care Flex model offered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Video
Medicare Advantage, Part D, and duals regulatory changes
21 February 2024 - by Nicholas Johnson, Jason Karcher, Sam Shellabarger, Ryan Swenson
A deep dive into the policies influencing Medicare Advantage, Part D, and the dual-eligible market.
Video
Know your worth: Contracting in Medicare value-based programs
08 November 2023 - by Austin Barrington, Simon Moody, Sam Shellabarger
As value-based contracting continues to gain popularity in Medicare, health plans and providers need to work together to develop reasonable terms, good working relationships, and opportunities for both parties to win. In this session, we discuss different ways to achieve these goals to ensure value creation with aligned incentives.
Article
Reactions and thoughts on PY2024 ACO REACH methodology changes
07 September 2023 - by Emma Kramer, Noah Champagne, Sam Shellabarger
We summarize in detail the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation’s guidance on methodology changes to the ACO REACH model.
Video
Webinar: CY 2024 Medicare bidding hot topics
19 April 2023 - by Kevin Pierce, Philip Nelson, Alex Cires, Sam Shellabarger
Join our presenters Kevin Pierce, Alex Cires, and Philip Nelson as they highlight some of the hot topics for Medicare Part C and D bid development in advance of the 2024 bid deadline.
Video
2024 Medicare Advantage and Part D regulatory and legislative changes
22 February 2023 - by Michael J. Polakowski, Ryan Swenson, Sam Shellabarger
Join us for a discussion of regulatory and guidance updates impacting 2024 MAPD bids including draft BPT changes and proposed rule impacts.
Video
Webinar: Medicare Advantage MCOs, meet ACOs. You should talk.
08 September 2021 - by Sam Shellabarger, Colleen Norris, Noah Champagne, Darin Muse
In this session, we provide background on the history of the CMS-sponsored risk sharing programs, examine the current and future landscape, analyze drivers of performance in these programs, and discuss how MA plans are well-positioned to generate additional revenue through these models.